COVID - 19

As everybody knows statistics hides much more then what it reveals. This has always been the case with data. Data by itself doesn't prove or disprove anything. It is a pointer to things that may happen depending on what has happened or what is happening. 

But the presentation of data matters. And the whole subject of statistics is hinged on this. The perception of people can be shaped and altered by how data is presented. Now there is a thin line between presentation and manipulation. And, that line depends on ethical and moral premises. These are both nebulous and abstract ideas. So more often than not, we find data being manipulated to suit the interests of those who want to derive benefits from it. 

In this age of digital technology, information gathering and presentation of it has reached a high level of sophistry. Now we are bombarded with information by every second that we are awake. This has also resulted in a decrease in our attention span and the need to process a given set of information for independent analysis or interpretation. This makes the pattern of our thought process streamlined and in sync with everyone else. The pitfalls of this are the loss of originality which is the trait that differentiates humans from animals or machines. 

For example, let us take the data of Covid-19 infections that are being reported by the appropriate authorities. I am not going into the veracity or basis of the reports. But just want to point to the obvious aspect that is not being assimilated by the public but is gradually and quite mistakenly being acknowledged as a great success in our effort to contain the virus. There is in fact, a sense of apparent gloating that is displayed by various politicians, administrators, and most, unfortunately, a section of doctors too about the statistics on the spread of infection. It is being pointed out repeatedly in the media how the doubling of infected cases is being staggered by more number of days gradually. 

How much of it is due to governmental efforts is questionable on the face of it. The nature of the virus strain, its ability to mutate in Indian conditions, the effect of herd immunity of Indians due to medical and genetic history of coping with severe pandemics in the past are not being considered. But that is not all. What is not being brought to focus that shorn of the growth rate in terms of days, the actual numbers are on an increasing trend. There are no signs of the spread tapering off. 

Let's assume that today we have about 10000 cases that are doubling in twelve days. This means by the end of twelve days, we will have 20000 cases. Let's say that after 12 days the rate of doubling goes up to twenty days. This means that by the end of 32 days we will have 40000 cases.  Does it look like a success to you? Ask yourself. The rate may be whatever, it doesn't matter. The bottom line is that the number of cases have quadrupled in a month. 

What is our aim? To stall the rate of infection or eradicate it. I am not a medical specialist and I also understand that for a densely populated country like India, it will be very difficult to achieve full eradication of the infection. So, then I ask, why is this premature ejaculation of laudatory statements for? Why are we being fed with sly propaganda that things are getting better with the lockdown in force for almost 45vdays and still counting ? Why this meaningless comparison with other countries that have been ravaged by the virus. 

Don't compare it with the USA , Italy, or the UK . If you have to compare then do it with China, South Korea, and other Asian nations. Now again that type of thought process is not for ultra-nationalists or Bhakts. They are simple-minded souls who derive happiness by comparing everything with Pakistan.  

But then what can you say when educated people with Banking and financial backgrounds are trying hard to establish that write-offs of bad loans are technically different from loan waivers. And lampooning people who are trying to equate that based on the data about loan amounts written off being actually repaid.